Has Boodles winner Lark In The Mornin improved enough to buck a recent trend in the Swinton Hurdle?

It would be glib to simply pitch the Swinton as the last major handicap of last season, rather than the first of the current one. With this year's favourite being a four-year-old, Boodles winner Lark In The Mornin, we can attempt to put numbers on what that could mean.

When Lark In The Mornin won the Boodles, his weight-for-age allowance against older horses over two miles would have been 8lb. Now it is 4lb. By September 1 it will have disappeared entirely.

In other words, on top of the 8lb his handicap mark has gone up for Cheltenham, Lark In The Mornin is also expected to have made 4lb of natural progress. The weight-for-age scale only tracks the average and so it is worth thinking about how much more precocious than that Lark In The Mornin might be.

He is bred for the Flat and ran in that code as a two-year-old, albeit only once. Winning the Boodles in itself could also be taken as a sign of precocity, even if it was just his fourth hurdles run. On balance it seems reasonable to think weight-for-age has been catching up with him, rather than the other way around.

That is the way it tends to be in the Swinton. Since 2010, 15 four-year-olds have contested the race. One has won, Ballyglasheen in 2014, and he was on his 13th hurdles start. He was forward enough not to need the allowance.

Note also that only five of the 15 finished in the first ten when they ran in the Swinton. It can clearly come early enough for plenty of four-year-olds. Lark In The Mornin would be odds against to land in that category, having already won a Cheltenham Festival handicap. It might reasonably be asked if he has kept on improving at the required pace in the nine weeks since.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose

Conditions to suit Lark In The Mornin

Impressive Boodles winner Lark In The Mornin nearly did not run at the Cheltenham Festival because of the heavy ground, but there will be no concerns about conditions this time.

Lark In The Mornin has been pulled out of three races since February by Joseph O'Brien, including at the Punchestown festival last time, and he will finally get his preferred conditions in the Swinton Hurdle.

Joseph O'Brien: "The ground looks like it will be suitable for Lark In The Mornin"Credit: Patrick McCann (racingpost.com/photos)

He will have to defy the trends as only two four-year-olds have won the £80,000 contest this century, but the way he charged home in the Boodles suggests the 8lb rise here might not stop him.

The money came for him at the start of the week too, with his odds on Friday around 5-2 (from 5).

O'Brien said: "The ground at Haydock looks like it will be suitable for Lark In The Mornin. It's very good prize-money and we'd be hopeful he can run a good race."

What they say

Johnson White, joint-trainer of Ballee
He was keen in his two wins at Taunton and he was the same again at Aintree last time. What was particularly pleasing there, though, was that I thought he would stop but he battled on well to the line. He's in good form and the flat track should suit him well.

Paul Nicholls, trainer of Afadil and Rare Middleton
The track and ground should suit Afadil well. The only thing is, he's been to Cheltenham, Aintree and Ayr, so he's been busy, but he seems well. Rare Middleton ran well at Cheltenham last time and loves decent ground and the track as well, so he's got a nice chance too.

Fergal O'Brien, trainer of Tintintin and Castel Gandolfo
They ran against each other at Cheltenham last time and Tintintin came out on top. He's in good form and we're really happy with him. He's a lovely horse who's still young, so I hope there's more to come from him. He won't run if the ground goes good to firm, but if it's fine and safe we'll drive on with him. Castel Gandolfo is in good order and Jack Hogan is back on him. I think he'll love the fast pace.

Olly Murphy, trainer of Pickanumber
He's made a good start in Britain, but this looks a tougher assignment than what he's been used to. He gets in off a nice weight with Dylan [Johnston] taking off 5lb and he could outrun his price.
Reporting by Andrew Dietz

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